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  • IOBE think tank stresses need to close evaluation

    'The smooth development of economic policy without negative political surprises, and the timely completion of the next evaluation of the programme can contribute to the further stabilisation of expectations'

    ΤοΒΗΜΑ Team

    A study released by Greece’s Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research underlines that the conclusion of the third fiscal evaluation by lenders is a precondition for the smooth progress of the economy.

    «The smooth development of economic policy without negative political surprises and the timely completion of the next evaluation of the programme can contribute to the further stabilisation of expectations for the course of the economy,» the report states.

    The study found that the Index of Economic Climate receded slightly, after an upward trend over the last months, dropping to 98.3 points from 100.6 in September. Still, it is higher than the same month last year, which was 94.3.

    With the exception of certain segments of retail, there is a deterioration of expectations in all sectors and, marginally, in consumer confidence. This is considered a predictable correction, as the index followed an upward trend throughout 2017. After a dynamic third quarter, which includes the tourist season, predictions regarding the economic course are measured.

    Moreover, as the end of the year approaches , the negative impact of the tax burden on families and businesses will be exacerbated, impacting on economic expectations.

    Findings by sector

    Industry – Projections regarding production over the coming months are receding, as is the case with orders and demand, with the balance of evaluations regarding reserves increasing slightly.

    Construction – Projections regarding the activity programme of businesses are worsening, while employment projections remain unaltered.

    Retail Sales –  Evaluations of current sales are improving, as are short-term development projections, while evaluations of the level of reserves appear stable on the index.

    Services –  Optimistic evaluations of the current situation of businesses weakened in October as compared to September, as did projections of current demand.

    Consumer Confidence – There is a small improvement of the balance regarding unemployment projections, and a marginal recovery in projections on the economic condition of the country. Projections regarding the economic situation of households and the intention to save are worsening.

    International
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