Even though there have been reports about how the Greek program is within targets, talks about a third aid package for Greece have reappeared in the mainstream media, in order to cover the financing gap of the next few years.
While some might expect that a third aid package would entail loans from EU members or the IMF, it seems that the 12 billion left over from 50-billion euro package for refinancing Greek banks will be the basis.
The key parameter of course is that the four refinanced systemic banks will not need any future help, since the deep recession and inability of many businesses and individuals alike to keep up with their obligations “threaten” the bankers’ balance sheets.
That is perhaps why the government is focusing on lifting the temporary ban on auctions of primary residences, so that banks can generate funds through foreclosures or by selling part of their portfolio. The main condition for a third package is that Greece maintains the 2.5 billion euro primary surplus it appears to have achieved and increases it to 6 billion by 2016.
In essence the discussions suggest that a new debt haircut is out of the question and that a potential third aid package would entail negotiations for further austerity measures, in order to avoid taking out a new loan.
