American investment banking firm Goldman Sachs has estimated in its latest report that the European Central Bank will maintain its «generous stance» towards Greece regarding the provision of liquidity via the ELA.
Additionally, Goldman Sachs believes that the ECB will not act unilaterally, bur rather in accordance with Eurozone decisions. A Grexit after the recent political tension is an unlikely scenario, according to the report, however the dangers of such an occurrence have increased recently.
Regarding the ECB’s recent decision to stop accepting Greek bonds as collateral, Goldman Sachs notes that by the end of December Greek banks had drawn 56 billion euros from the Eurosystem (45 by the end of November), which is far less than the 158 billion euros they drew in 2012.
The banking firm’s analyst note that the ECB’s decision, in conjunction with the documented deposit ouflow, will increased the dependence of Greek banks on the ELA mechanism for liquidity, which is more expensive than the ECB. In any case though, they believe that any doubt of the ECB’s support will significant negative impact on the banks.
