It might be a bit premature to estimate that the Greek economy is finally exiting the recession once and for all, but there are many leading indications that would confirm such an estimation.

A series of data and financial developments suggest that we “hit rock bottom” and now the economy is starting to react.

It is a common belief that aside from the harsh consequences, the crisis formed an entirely new financial environment.

The economy is very different to how it was back in 2009. The bail out had a huge impact on it, it changed structures and functions, as well enforcing regulations for the exercise of economic activities.

The market if finally mobile, many of the limitations have been lifted, labor supply has multiplied meaning that wages have cumulatively been reduced by 20% to 25% in the past five years.

The greatest drop was in real estate and leases of course, so that the cost of maintaining commercial and business premises is no more a hurdle to start a business or expand operations.

Additionally, the transport market has been deregulated, with prices of services becoming more rational, while the production, distribution and availability of goods costs a lot less than in the past. Meanwhile, the businesses that survived have taken care of their finances, checked their excess cost zones, taken initiatives, became more extroverted, improved their products and services, took advantage of new, highly trained staff, make wide use of advanced technological means and act very differently than how they used to.

So based on the above, aside from the primary surplus in public finances that was achieved a year earlier, the surplus of external balance is impressive, as in 2013 it reached 1.1% GDP, from a 10.5% GDP deficit in 2009. It is also particularly interesting that in the last trimester of 2013 there was an increase in retail sales, while the previous trimester there as a 9.3% reduction. It is especially important that this trend carried on into January. Also one cannot ignore that the recession remained stable at 3.7% in 2013, when the troika and international organizations predicted a 4.2% recession. Equally noteworthy is the significant 15.2% increase of new cars at the end of 2013 and first month of 2014. Just like the increase of new building permits at the end of 2013. Based on all this, many agree with Alpha Bank’s estimations that there will be 1% growth rate in 2014. That is almost twice as much as the Europeans and the troika predict.

What is crucial about all of the above is that occurred in a year where the credit growth decreased by a further 3.9% and public investments remained frozen. This is evident by how the Greek economy relied on its own strengths.

This means that despite the attrition and the many burdens, the Greek economy remains active, alive and is able to mobilize resources and the strength to reveal a hidden potential, even under these critical circumstances.

It would be accurate to say that the Greek people maintain the fighting spirit, is not subdued by the crisis, but rather finds the way to beat it and react, overcoming parties, leaderships and – above all – compulsions. At present, that is perhaps the most hopeful message.

Antonis Karakousis

– Originally published in the Sunday print edition