Truth be told, the political developments in Greece have largely been predetermined and are not expected to change dramatically in the near future.
The measures demanded by our partners and creditors were voted in unopposed by the government majority of 153 MPs, thus satisfying – after lots of effort and torment – the prior actions for the 7.5 billion euro tranche.
As it stands, the EMS will disburse the funds and Greece will be relieved from the imminent threat of a bankruptcy.
Additionally, Greece will benefit from a more favorable treatment from the European Central Bank, the Greek credit funds will receive credit lines from Frankfurt and Greeks bonds will have a better response in the Eurosystem.
Public finances also seems to be under control. The progress in the five months between January and May are encouraging, meaning that a primary surplus amounting to 0.5% of the GDP can be achieved this year. Should this be the case, then the automatic fiscal adjustment mechanism will not come into effect in the spring of 2017.
All that remains is for the corrective measures in the labor market, which are a treated as a prerequisite for the second tranche, to be introduced in the fall.
But even this does not seem possible to cause any major problem to the government. As difficult as it may be, the concrete and power-embracing parliamentary majority of SYRIZA and the Independent Greeks can probably manage it.
Meanwhile, the Greek people, disappointed and fed up with the constant changes of government, are in no fighting mode. They complain, bicker and denounce those in power, but ultimately nobody is revolting, which in essence is giving extra time to the current government.
Logically and based on current circumstances, there does not seem to be any government crisis on the horizon.
The government will continue to suffer and retreat, but it is in no danger of being overthrown on a short-term basis.
It assumed its fair share of the cost, mostly did what the the opposition called for, got extra time from its creditors and now the government can look forward to overturning the climate of attrition and doubt.
Whether one likes it or not, this is the reality with which the opposition must come to terms with and prepare for a long-term political struggle against the propagandist and authoritarian neo-Leftists.
It is clear that the national populist school of cynics cannot be opposed with fireworks and flashes in the pan, but rather with the systematic effort and a convincing alternative proposal.
The turn that Mr. Mitsotakis is attempting is in the right direction. If he can present an inspiring and substantiated plan to overcome the crisis, he can hope to rid his party from the responsibility for the collapse of Greece and regain the trust of the disappointed people, who are struggling alone, without a vision or hope.
Antonis Karakousis
Originally published in the Sunday print edition
