About a month is left until the European elections and the pollsters are lost for words.
They cannot make a safe prediction. They try to estimate the electorate’s intentions, but they cannot div them out.
They calculate a bit of this and a bit of that, they get some results which they try to confirm with the results of the 2012 elections, but it just doesn’t add up.
Those who claim to vote for PASOK, for example, are many more than those who voted two years ago.
It is the same with the other parties too. The results do not reflect the expressed intention to vote.
That is where the “balancing” comes in, in order to approach the 2012 election results.
Poll “bonuses” are given to SYRIZA, New Democracy, ANEL and others in order to confirm the previous election.
There are problems with this method; the studies have method problems meaning that predictions may be precarious.
So surprises may be lurking, just like they did in May of 2012. Only nobody can safely say what these surprises will be.
Some say they will be positive, others say they may be negative.
The pollsters claim that New Democracy is having a hard time attracting voters, like PASOK did in 2012.
But even SYRIZA’s momentum is exaggerated; with the pollster’s “bonuses”, they barely get 20% of the vote.
The River, according to the researchers, is here today and gone tomorrow.
On the other hand, DIMAR will likely pay for approaching Mr. Papandreou, while the “Olive Tree” is underestimated and may turn out to be one of the surprises.
With Golden Dawn’s leadership in prison, they are stuck and unable to cause an uproar, Polydoras and his allies are not being documented, ANEL is clearly losing, KKE is not enticing anyone, the Ecologists are barely existing, ANTARSYA is too small and Mrs. Koutsoumpa is not enough, Kazakis’ EPAM comes from another world, Alavanos’ proposal is not attracting many supporters; the fragmentation divides is does not accumulate, nor does it allow any of the smaller parties to create a trend.
At the same time, we must not underestimate the fact that the local government elections will come first, followed by a week of exceptional battles in the large cities and districts from which the popular parties will be missing.
And of course, we must not forget abstaining, which makes voting less critical. The lack of a positive message may affect voter intentions. The different scenarios that are making the rounds lately are likely to affect voter behavior and attitude.
It is not unlikely that there may not be a clear winner after the two elections and society’s message may be to make serious, reliable political parties that are capable of guaranteeing the future of the country and the people.
Quite simply, the old parties are depreciated and the new ones are a joke, they cannot guarantee anything, nor create any enthusiasm.
It is not unlikely then that the great political reform will begin on the 26th of May. Perhaps Mr. Samaras suspects something and he rushed to publicize his party’s proposals for the upcoming constitutional review, where the role and duties of the President of Democracy are going to be a main point.
Antonis Karakousis
