The data for this year’s recovery are changing
The financial staff keeps its cards closed, but a number of factors reflect the new dynamics that are developing
The forecasts of the government’s financial staff for the growth rate that the Greek economy will achieve this year are returning back to 4.8%.
Contributing to the change in estimates are the facts that investment rose by more than 8% in the first quarter of the year, exports of goods also rose by more than 8%, and the recession in the first quarter to 2.3%.
A series of indicators come to show that the Greek economy is regaining its pulse. ELSTAT announced an increase in industrial production by 22.5% in April compared to April 2020, which shows that a new dynamic is developing.
However, the Foundation for Economic & Industrial Research (IOBE) in its report showed a jump in the economic climate index to a high of 14 months in May and notes that “the lifting of travel restrictions, the restart in important parts of the economy, the prospect of starting the tourist season, even if not reflected in terms of international traffic, as well as the escalating vaccination process, form a much more positive general climate in the country, compared to previous months.
Change by Ethniki Bank
The recovery in investment and business activity led to a positive surprise for the GDP in the first quarter, contributing to the upward revision of annual growth estimates to + 5.7% in 2021, say Ethniki Bank analysts, in a study.
The Greek economy, they report, has shown remarkable resilience to difficult epidemiological conditions and the expansion of restrictions in the first quarter of 2021. Specifically, GDP grew at an unexpectedly strong rate of 4.4%, compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. for seasonality) and decreased by only 2.3% compared to the corresponding (before Covid-19) quarter of 2020.
The quarterly growth ranks among the three strongest in the EU, and is the third consecutive, after increases of 3.8% and 3.4% in the third and fourth quarters of 2020, respectively, (which followed the quarterly decline in GDP by -12.9% in the second quarter of 2020, when the pandemic occurred).