Recently, in response to the tragedy and brutalities in the Middle East where the Islamic State is expanding as well as Obama and Merkel being unable to curb Putin’s claims against Ukraine, international analysts have expressed their worry or concern that the West is losing control of the world.
However rhetorical the question may appear is based on reality. The latest events, primarily in the Middle East and secondarily in Ukraine, are creating an international environment of instability and uncertainty.
In their private discussion American and European officials admit the many dangers that are emerging internationally.
Despite what is publicly being said, the situation in the Middle East is infinitely more critical and dangerous since the ISIS is not easy to subdue, there are no possibilities of a quick and immediate intervention beyond aerial bombardment, which are obviously not enough to eliminate a political and religious military force that is rapidly and constantly expanding.
Financial and political reasons associated to the previous military experiences of Americans and their allies in Iraq and Afghanistan do not allow any thoughts for ground operations.
At present a ground intervention would require 150,000 soldiers, 200 billion dollars and the decision to stay in the inhospitable Mesopotamian lands for at least twenty years, in order to be effective.
The USA is tormented financially; politically they have committed to disengaging from military fronts and socially they have other priorities, they are trying to recover but they are not ready for such a huge and uncertain war.
Those in charge of the Islamic State are aware of this and through the propaganda of beheadings they are trying to show how heavy the price will be if the USA insists on intervening.
Beyond that though there is no shortage of people who estimate that the threat of destabilization for the entire world is much greater than what it appears to be.
American officials are open about their concerns of this turmoil spreading to other countries. They are particularly concerned about possible developments in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Their leaders are playing between the West and extremist Islam, funding such movements, maintaining ties and using them to curb Iran’s influence in the region, unaware that they may fall victim to them, should they prevail.
Saudi Arabia is especially in danger, where the illness of the elderly king will prompt a battle of succession. The recent reports of transferring Muhammad’s tomb are related to the upcoming battle of succession.
According to the Americans, the succession in the house of Saud may cause great tension and conflict between the representatives of the many tribes. Some, although they exaggerate, claim that Saudi Arabia may end up like Libya.
The potential battle of succession in Saudi Arabia may allow the Islamic State to intervene in the name of uniting all Arabs, thus entangling a large and rich country in its claims.
If something like that happens then it is certain that the Emirates, Jordan, Lebanon and all the other nearby countries will get involved.
In this case, the Islamic domino fall will affect everyone from Mauritania to Indonesia, with profound security problems to emerge. It is no coincidence that the West is trying to develop counterbalance in the region and is quick to ally itself with Iran and support the Kurds, who are entering a phase of national integration.
Iran’s role has increased, the Kurds are being armed by the Americans and Europeans in order to resist the expansion of the extremist Sunni Islamic State. However nothing is simple in geopolitics.
The potential creation of a Kurdish state would threaten the integrity of Turkey and create more fronts. Quite a few fear that now that Erdogan has isolated himself from the West, primarily due to the huge mistakes he made in the Syrian crisis, he will create tension to his west.
The tension of the past few days with Greece, the quick meeting he had with Antonis Samaras in Wales and the overall aggressive stance that Erdogan maintained against Cyprus is indicative f the pressure he feels on the eastern front.
Lately Turkish drones have been spotted flying over Evros, which creates skepticism since the summer ends and autumn is the available for exercises in the Aegean.
In any case the events in the Middle East are not simple, even though they are overlooks or treated as a television thriller.
The case of the Islamic State raises many security issues in Europe. The thousands of westerners who fight on the side of the Arab jihadists create a greater issue for European countries with a strong Islamic presence. That is also the case with the migration wave towards Europe, with Greece at the top.
It is unfortunate that Greek politics is not closely following the events in the Middle Eat, nor taking advantage of the influence it has in such a troubled and critical area for the world.
Beyond that, Europe and America are unable to curb Putin’s claims in Ukraine.
It seems that he will succeed in getting what he wants. He will control the pro-Russian areas, he will open land-access to the Crimean peninsula and will force the Ukrainian leadership of accepting a fate of double dependence from Russia and Europe.
The difference is that Europe will have trouble funding Ukraine as it faces financial problems itself. Common belief dictates that Ukraine will “surrender” to Russia, sooner or later.
It is no coincidence that the interest of Americans and Europeans has shifted to the protection of the Baltic states, which they consider to be vulnerable, should Putin wish to revive the old Soviet Union.
This is evident by Obama’s recent visit to Tallinn in Estonia, as well as Merkel’s references to the possibility of expanding the war into other countries.
The fear is clear, as is the awkwardness in dealing with it, as evident by the hysteric responses of NATO chief Mr. Rasmussen and the alliance’ plans to form a quick response force of 4,000 men.
Based on all of the above, the question posed is anything but rhetorical.
The world will enter a new phase.
New forces will emerge and be empowered by the old leaders of the world, who are living through their own contradictions.
With the fronts in the Middle East and Russia being open and China staking a claim for financial domination, nothing will be the same on planet Earth.
There is a chance that the West will lose control of the world at some point.
That does not mean though that the world will become a better place…
Antonis Karakousis
