Many government officials have been saying for months that the role and presence of the troika in Greek finances is about to end.
The first successful return to the credit markets supported these estimations.
Some Ministers even operated as if this had happened.
One could say that after everything that has happened and the confirmed failures of the imposed measures, it is fair to strive to disentangle the troika from Greek financial affairs and claim a greater flexibility in financial policy.
However things are not that simple, nor must they be taken for granted.
There is no shortage of people who claim that without the troika nothing would change in the country and bankruptcy would be a given. They insist that Greece’s return to the markets would not be successful without the troika’s guarantee.
Recently, community experts and others recommended that Greece should not rush to make its next step without having ensured direct access to the markets.
They insist that the systematic yield of funds from the market on a midterm basis will not be easy.
The truth is that the high liquidity internationally allows making such plan in the present circumstances, but there is no guarantee that they will not change.
As indicated by the recent episode with the Portuguese Bank, the markets remain sensitive and volatile, despite the high liquidity.
The fact that the Greek state could not yield 3 billion euros from thee-year bonds, a small sum for short-term titles, has troubled many and illustrates how precarious it would be to leave the security of cheap funding provided by the rescue program and the troika.
There are no guarantees that Greece will be able to find the funds it needs on a midterm basis from the markets.
On the contrary, by ousting the troika prematurely and without having secured the necessary guarantees, Greece may end in greater trouble that may cost more and overturn the results of the fiscal policy that was implemented in recent years.
In other words, it is easy to announce the end of the troika, but it is just as hard for that to occur without having ensured systematic access to the markets.
Antonis Karakousis
