According to the latest count, the dead in Turkey have exceeded 15,000, while estimates are ominous regarding the final tally.

In his post, Turkish seismologist Ovgun Ahmet Ercan spoke of 184,000 people under the debris, according to his calculations.

“About 6,000 buildings have collapsed. This corresponds to 48,000 apartments in total over 4 floors, 8 apartments (each floor). This corresponds to 192,000 people under the rubble assuming 4 people (in each flat). About 8,000 people have been rescued. Some 184,000 (more) people are under the rubble. I’m scared,” he said in his post.

This scenario may be extreme, but it can be confirmed, Konstantinos Synolakis, academic professor of Natural Disasters, commented to MEGA channel. The professor emphasized that most victims would be in cities, as there were high-rise apartment buildings there.

Konstantinos Synolakis’s statements

He also emphasized that on Tuesday, there were areas where rescuers were unable to reach. Time is counting down for the people trapped under the rubble, as 72 hours have already passed and the chances of their rescue are narrowing.

“The ‘window’ is usually up to 72 hours. There may be – and I hope there will be – surprises, if only for one or two human lives, the efforts of the rescuers must continue. But the chances are very small,” he said.

Finally, Mr. Synolakis emphasized that such mega-earthquakes occur every 600 years and referred to the earthquake in Crete in 365 BC, stressing that the island rose 10 meters due to the seismic shock.

“The last major earthquake on Crete occurred in 1403 and it is estimated that such earthquakes occur every 600 to 800 years. We are already at the “centennial window”, when we may see a large earthquake in the Greek arc of the order of 8.5 Richter,” he said.