Unstable world caught in a vortex
“A lot is happening these days in the world and a lot more will happen”…
“A lot is happening these days in the world and a lot more will happen” mentioned the former Prime Minister and vice president of the European Central Bank Lucas Papadimos. He does not hide his concern when asked about the waves of insecurity and uncertainty. On the contrary, he insists that the instability tends to prevail worldwide, while revealing unique threats, which until recently were insignificant and under control.
If one were to approach what is going on the world, he we sense the complication and that the world is on the turning point of a major disturbance, the nature and intensity of which cannot yet be determined.
“This era is similar to the mid-war period” mentioned and extroverted and one of the most distinguished Greek businessmen.
“In the 1930s the prelude of imminent storm and were being documented on a daily basis, however it was not appraised because everyone took peace for granted and that the world would remain stable” he recently said during a meeting which focused on understanding and approaching the domestic and international circumstances. Truly so, news from every corner of thew world emerges every day that fuel instability and insecurity.
Europe at a crossroads
It is clear that after the Brexit the circumstances have changed dramatically. With their vote to leave the European Union, the British sent a negative and anti-union message to the Old Continent. Many say that they have essentially cut the knot that has been preventing the sweater from unraveling. From here on, European unity will seem impossible and as time goes on, there it will have fewer and fewer supporters. More so when the current European leadership is insufficient or rather does not have the strength and courage to lead an intensive attempt to further deepen and accelerate European integration. Neither Merkel, nor Hollande or anyone else can stand up and enforce the unionist policies. On the contrary, European politics are defined by factors that are particularly corrosive towards European integration. The immigration issue, which appears to have played a central role in the British referendum, has lead to protectionism and the closure of national borders more than anything else. Merkels’ Germany, which at first was tolerant towards the waves of immigration, is already being pressured and threatened by movements that until recently were quaint, or rather they had limited influence. Following the events in Turkey and the doubts cast over the implementation of the agreement on immigration, the pressure in Germany will increase. A possible resurgence of the waves of immigration would pout Merkel in dire position. The attack in Munich on Friday has confirmed the worst fears. Terrorism has now arrived too in Germany, with all that this entails.
The current political leadership in France also appears to be facing a huge security problem and the people’s anger. The ongoing brutal terrorist attacks carried out by the jihadists is shattering the faith of the French people and fueling and anti-immigration and anti-European policy of national entrenchment that Marie Le Pen’s National Front expresses and propagandizes. France, a European country with democratic tradition and might, is forced to live like Israel, with all that entails for the country and its people. Meanwhile, Mateo Renzi‘s Italy is facing its own banking crisis and is seeking an internal solution, beyond the framework of the newly-established European banking union, which will pass on the burden of a collapsing bank to its shareholders, bondholders and account holders. Renzi proclaims that “Italy is not Cyprus”, but Frankfurt cannot accept the collapse of the European banking union in its first steps. The Italian banking problem, which came as a result of the Brexit, is coming to confirm how difficult an affair the European unification and integration is under the current European and international circumstances.
The hostility with Russia
At the same time the chilled relations between Europe and Russia cannot be ignored, after NATO decided to install weapons and forces in Eastern Europe. Putin is nervous from NATO’s initiatives and bothered by the anti-Russian anger in Eastern European and Baltic countries, the delegate’s of whom will not miss the opportunity to lash out, obviously motivated by the phobias from the Soviet era. The West seems unable to find a balance with Russia. It accepts and perhaps claims Russia’s role in the critical fronts on the Middle East, but at the same time it wants to block the Kremlin’s developing influence in Europe, which is raising tension and increasing uncertainty.
After the coup in Turkey
Turkey’s problem has also come to add tons of uncertainty to the international affairs. American sources estimate that Turkey has entered a period of major crisis after the coup. The neighboring country is described by the American source as a “geopolitical black hole” with an uncertain future. The major persecutions carried out by Erdogan after the coup attempt are already causing a major disturbance in domestic cohesiveness and the major conflicts in the neighboring country are emerging. Many believe that Turkey is headed towards the establishment of an authoritarian Islamic state. The long-term “Midnight Express” prepared by Erdogan for his opponents may even result in a civil conflict in the neighboring country, with all that entails for security in the entire region.
Instability in the USA
From them on, the source of jihadism in the Middle East remains active and capable of spreading waves of terrorism throughout the world. The Korean issue is also not to be ignored. North Korea continues to provoke international order with its repeated tests of ballistic missiles and its leader’s nuclear focus. Combined with the occasionally tense relations between the USA and China, Korea is turning out to be another source of disruption and uncertainty.
But there are also problems on the other side of the Atlantic. The race issues that have emerged after the killings of black people and the revenge against white police officers is turning into a major issue, allowing Donald Trump to legitimately claim the American presidency. The possibility of his election is causing many disturbances. Especially when the unrefined and cocky presidential candidate is raising issues that are disturbing balances in the modern world. His recent comment that the USA should not pay for the security of others caused concern in NATO and Europe. His possible election and the realization of this threat will alter the post-war rules and repeal the terms of peace that was reached in 1945, as it will demand that Germany increases its military strength.
Problematic circumstances everywhere
It is a common belief that the world tomorrow will not be as bright. On the contrary, problematic circumstances are emerging everywhere, which as it would seem will carry on for at least five years. Greece cannot have many hopes in such a gray international environment, unless it tackles the ongoing, corrosive financial crisis and does not manage to stay under the security of a supranational umbrella. This of course requires that the umbrella, the European in this case, will endure and not be lost in the anti-union winds that are blowing through all corners of the Old Continent.
With their vote to leave the European Union, the British sent a negative and anti-union message to the Old Continent.
Germany, which at first was tolerant towards the waves of immigration, is already being pressured and threatened by movements that until recently were quaint, or rather they had limited influence.
Problematic circumstances are emerging everywhere, which as it would seem will carry on for at least five years.
Originally published in the Sunday print edition