The double elections in May sent a lot of ambiguous messages and signs.
The responses to them, from either side, were probably not the best.
The government responded with a cabinet reshuffle, which probably doesn’t excite anyone, not even its designers. It has been about a month since the new Ministers were appointed and yet there is no sense of anything new, they do not even seem to have any drive or moment. On the contrary, we have lots of delays and procrastination dominates.
Truth be told, the incorporation of populists into the government was not the best response to the election result. The theory that you must fight populism with populism is turning out to be ineffective and problematic.
Additionally it seems that the government has lost touch with the financial policy and the stabilization program that guided most up to Mr. Stournaras’ departure from the Minister of Finances. His successor, Gikas Hardouvelis, is milder and less hegemonic, he has not yet made his mark, must less enforced his priorities on the government cabinet.
He probably needs time and work, but in the meantime time marches on and if you hesitate you will miss the train.
At present the overall impression is that the government lost its leading spirit and became more vulnerable to the demands and claims of powerful groups. In other words, it lost its balance after the reshuffle, which resulted in the limitation of its efficiency.
Likewise, the main opposition party, which may have won the elections but did not manage to create an indisputable momentum on its path to power, is tormented by internal conflicts and ideological debates and is not yet in the position to present a coherent and reliable exit plan from the crisis.
On top of that, DEI is being split up without any political backing and the energy sector is being deregulated without much support, so things are looking grim.
If it wasn’t for the summer holidays, we would probably be talking about an emergent political problem and the proliferation of political dangers for the economy and the country.
The truth is that summer will go by, one way or the other, thanks to tourism, but the autumn will be difficult.
The negotiations for the debt will be tough, the fiscal gap will leave its mark on the 2015 budget gap, at a time when untimely claims will increase and intensify.
In such a tense environment and hard negotiation for the debt, the government will suffer while SYRIZA, on the other hand, so long as it does not attain that momentum, it will leave a gap in the Centrist zone, where there is a lot of activity going on and dynamic initiatives are developing imperceptibly that will soon emerge.
The government’s management shortfalls and the main opposition party’s lack of a reliable proposal to exit the crisis, generated by its internal contradictions, create a fertile ground for new forces, which sooner or later will emerge to shake things in the current political system. Nature, after all, hates gaps…
Antonis Karakousis
Originally published in the Sunday print edition
