Can 2016 be a good year?
Is there a chance that the conditions will arise for the country to exit the long-term financial crisis?
The more suspicious do not leave room for optimism in response to these reasonable and agonizing concerns, for many.
By taking into consideration the many recent bad experiences, they believe that the SYRIZA-led government will drown in its contradictions and impasses of a policy that it does not support, which in turn will bring on another political crisis that is capable of undermining the progress that has been achieved with many burdens, efforts and infinite sacrifices.
There is no shortage of people who believe that Mr. Tsipras and his party have no alternatives and are forced by the circumstances, as well as their political interests, to run along with the agreement reached in the summer and to create an environment of progress for the Greek economy.
Bankers and businessmen want the Prime Minister to be determined to implement the program agreed with the partners and creditors, banking on the financial benefits for the country and the political benefits for himself.
The country’s path in 2016 will be defined by the governing party’s determination to carry out the pension system reform and change the taxation of farmers. These two reforms, which are decisive for the progress of the program, will be judged in January.
If the government persists and overcomes the internal reactions, then a series of positive developments for the Greek economy will follow, allowing Mr. Tsipras to declare that his securing the exit from the crisis.
It must be noted that voting measures in January that will secure the sustainability of the social insurance system, will launch procedures for the completion of the first review and possible begin talks to readjust the debt.
Should this occur, then the gradual lifting of the capital controls will be facilitated and Greek bonds will be accepted in the Eurosystem.
All of the aforementioned in conjunction with a good tourist season may allow the Greek economy to return to growth in the third quarter of 2016.
This necessitates though that the government will last and not give in to the reactions from the major changes to the pension system and farmer taxation. IN that case, one can expect 2016 to be better than the turbulent 2015.
Everything therefore depends on the power and strength of the Prime Minister and his party…
Antonis Karakousis
