We are two and a half months away from the European and local government elections and the political landscape appears unstable and uncertain.
The estimations of the previous months are not being confirmed.
The prediction that SYRIZA would come first in the European elections and that the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn would increase its numbers did not come true.
The clash with New Democracy, as it would seem, is going to be suspenseful.
Mr. Tsipras’ candidates in the local government elections in Attica are not living up expectations. Newcomer Sakellaridis has about 13% of the vote, while the ambitious MP Rena Dourou is under-performing, compared to SYRIZA’s results in the June 2012 elections.
Perhaps it is the candidates, the internal conflicts or maybe the uncertainty with the bailout and taxes. In any case, SYRIZA does not have the air of the undisputed champion, as it did until recently.
Neither, of course, do New Democracy’s candidates receive any enthusiastic reception from that traditionally conservative voters of the capital.
Messrs Spiliotopoulos and Kaklamanis are trailing behind the current Mayor of Athens.
Even the Kasidiaris the bully is barely making a dent and the boastful Panagiotaros is struggling to get 5% in the Attica Prefecture/
The people treat Mr. Kaminis much better, just like Yannis Sgouros, who represents the small PASOK, which is faltering after the falling out with the “58” behind Stavros Theodorakis’ “River”, which also overcame Fotis Kouvelis’ DIMAR.
The people appear to be selecting mayors rather than political leaders in the local government elections.
Of course there is also the case of Central Macedonia, where things are a bit confusing. There, the two candidates deriving from New Democracy have about 45% of the vote; Golden Dawn, which hoped to see its votes bolstered is more or less non-existent; SYRIZA’s candidate isn’t faring any better than in 2011 and Yannis Boutaris has about 42% of the vote – it seems like he will be elected in the first round.
Overall, one could say that the people are developing a particular political attitude that does not allow anyone to make any safe predictions.
What is certain though is that the bailout dilemma is not working. Everyone is now focusing on the next day and seeking out a safe future, without any further losses – income or otherwise – resulting in a resurgence of conservative syndromes for security, stability and a peculiar realism that goes beyond flags and parties.
Ultimately, successful mayors will win irrespective of their political allegiance and of course new candidates without the political entanglements of the past will be rewarded.
In such an election climate, Mr. Samaras is investing in his workaholic attitude and considers the emergent conservative reflexes of Greek society as the only power constant.
In any case, the elections in May will be surprising. That is perhaps the only certainty.
Antonis Karakousis
– Originally published in the Sunday print edition
