As it would seem, the election of a new President by the current Parliament seems to be rather unlikely. At the time that these lines are being written – late on Friday evening – nothing seems to confirm that Mr. Samaras and Mr. Venizelos’ many efforts would result in securing the necessary 180 votes. Everything indicates that while Mr. Dimas will receive more than 170 votes, he will be short of 180. So barring the unexpected, the third vote will probably end up being fruitless, meaning that early elections will soon be called, possibly for the 1st of February.
By taking into consideration the aforementioned and then evaluating everything that took place up to now and everything that we expect to occur in the month-long election campaign to follow, we can somewhat gauge the people’s stance.
Greek voters are usually possessed by conflicting feelings as elections approach; fear, insecurity, self-preservation, anger, hope and overall expectations for the near future.
Fear and insecurity dominate the conservative, elderly voters, especially those who will not jeopardize the normality in their life, even if that is ensured by the harsh presence of the troika in Greek financial affairs.
It should be noted that as the electoral race escalates, the feelings of fear, insecurity and self-preservation may further increase, as the dangers threatening the Greek economy are highlighted.
The commonly held belief is that as long as the public debate is being dominated by the economy, the conservative political voices will increase.
The feelings of anger, especially when focused, result in a punitive vote against the governing parties. They are mostly encountered in the working classes and the young affected by high unemployment rates.
In the elections of May 2012 the punitive vote prevailed and the government parties were defeated.
In the second elections in June insecurity and fear greatly affected the voters’ consciousness and the first choice was corrected, allowing Mr. Samaras to come first.
On the other hand, both can cultivate hopes and expectations.
The governing parties can promises normality, security and better days to come, while the opposition parties may promise a better negotiation and social peace in the interior, which may facilitate the country’s path.
In any case though, the upcoming elections will not be a walk in the park for any of the parties.
It appears that the elections will take place under polarizing conditions within an environment of great tension.
Everything indicates that New Democracy will not have luck that PASOK had in 2012. It will maintain its presence and if the feelings f fear and insecurity dominate then it may even be the surprise of the elections.
On the other side, SYRIZA has the advantage of the protest vote and the majority of the great well of young voters aged under 35. It is not unlikely for its rate to exceed 30%, but up to now nothing suggests that it will be able to cover the deficits of insecurity that step from its baseless positions regarding the economy.
Mr. Venizelos and PASOK are threatened by the rumored schism that Giorgos Papandreou will attempt; the River is hoping to exploit the crisis in the Center Left, but it may succumb to the polarization; Mr. Kammenos’ Independent Greeks are not entering the electoral race in the best condition and may soon share the Democratic Left’s luck; the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn will probably see its influence wane after everything happened and its leadership remains in prison; the Communist Party hopes to increase its strength and autonomy, but it will be compressed by the prospect of the Left government under SYRIZA and the smaller parties probably have not luck if the elections become a great bipartisan battle.
Based on of the above, nobody can predict the result of the elections with any certainty. Everything depends on the circumstances that will dominate in the economy during the election period and under the pressure of extreme feelings of anger and fear that proliferate in society. For better or for worse, these are dominant and will ultimately guide the Greek people’s vote.
Antonis Karakousis
Originally published in the Sunday print edition
