It appears that the negotiations with our partners and creditors are being prolonged.
At present there is no indication of an agreement with the troika on the progress report of the Greek economy, which as everyone knows is a condition for the other outstanding issues.
Differences are maintained, the troika considers the new budget to be full of uncertainty and speak of a budget gap and demand a slew of structural measures, which will be able to bring some stability to the Greek economy, thus guaranteeing that they will get back the loans which they offered for our rescue.
Therefore they demand assurances and timetables that in 2015 they will carry out changes in public administration, that a civil servant review system will be adopted and that the injustices in the pension system, which hands out equal pensions whether someone worked 15 or 30 years, will be addressed. There are also other, politically less important changes, but which will further burden Messrs Samaras and Venizelos, at a time when they were seeking for success and planning to leave behind the memorandum and its harsh versions.
These outstanding issues do now present allow a deal with the government, but on the contrary they create an atmosphere of confusion and great uncertainty for the future.
With all of the negotiation moving forward so slowly it is not unlikely that we will make it to January, shortly before the Presidential election process is to begin and we will not have a deal.
But beyond that, if the troika does not return to Athens on time then all of the deadline will affected.
The European institutions will not ratify the progress report on time, the deal for the precautionary credit line will be referred to the future and as such any new debt settlement will be postponed.
In this case the political and financial planning will be at jeopardy, expectations will crash, uncertainty will dominate, the Greek problem will return with a vengeance and the markets will respond accordingly, whatever that may mean for the overall progress of the country and the economy.
In politics though there is no shortage of rationalists and as it is well-known, there are different weights and measures.
The dominant political class however must consider the general cost of prolonging the uncertainty, which is not necessarily financial, but deeply political.
In times of generalized instability and demerit, in times of political uncertainty, ambitions emerge, waves are develomed, old and new forces are activated.
Nothing is static in our age. Everything is in motion and everything can change at any moment.
Much less when there is a sense of emptiness and a lack of determined leadership.
Antonis Karakousis
