Anyone following the developments in Greek affairs will be aware of how fragile the situation in the country is. A slew of taxes and restrictive measures had to be implemented in the past four years in order to bring relative balance to public finances, to control the deficits and to curb the spiraling public debt. This relative control has allowed the Greek State to return to the markets, to cover the banks and piqued the interest of foreign investors, by cultivating expectations of exiting this depressing recession.
However, there are no guarantees that public finances will remain healthy and they will not be derailed again at the first political change.
All that is needed is to unravel the main pillars of fiscal consolidation in order to raise new doubts and the country will end up being at the center of international pressures.
So far the first reports of a possible IMF departure have been examined closely, as is evident by the increase of interest rates. And that is because our creditors and partners treat the IMF and the troika as guarantors of stability.
Furthermore, the expressed intentions of the government to carry out tax cuts and other relief measures have prompted reactions and warnings from Brussels and the troika. This means that any attempt to relax the fiscal and reform policy will cast the Greek economy in doubt, which will in turn become a political danger.
You see, out there they do not care about the social catastrophe, all they care about is ensuring their money.
That, unfortunately, is the bitter truth.
Everything else is a matter of domestic policy.
The Samaras-Venizelos government is obviously under pressure. It has public opinion against it, its MPs are in shock and Tsipras is making his move for power. In order to avoid early general elections the government will have to elect a new President.
However, without the expectation of a rudimentary change in fiscal policy, they will fail to do so.
When Mr. Samaras visited Berlin he sought understanding and acquiescence from Mrs. Merkel. While it appears that he was successful, it was not enough to curb the messages and warnings from Brussels and the markets.
Therefore, it seems rather likely that we will have a tough winter ahead of us, with doubts, conflicts and financial repercussions. After all, the Greek political cycle was never painless.
Antonis Karakousis
Originally in the Sunday print edition
