The results of the triple elections were anything but indifferent. Without a doubt, they have created new political circumstances and set in motion the entire political system.
SYRIZA’s victory, despite many calling it anemic, has certain characteristics that affect all the other political forces. Those who delve into the results of the local elections will realize that Mr. Alexis Tsipras’ party won many municipalities in the capital and countryside, but more importantly, SYRIZA he gained a powerful social base in local government.
New Democracy and the ballot box’s message
Consequently, New Democracy’s attrition on all levels is not a minor fact. Just like how the concentration of a significant percentage of voters to its right is provocative and causes concern; more so when over half of them supported the indictee neo-Nazi Golden Dawn, which was resilient and maintained a presence in many municipalities and districts.
Neither was the Olive Tree’s salvation and domination over its centrist challengers an insignificant matter. It is already causing political developments, as is currently the case with DIMAR and soon to be with Stavros Theodorakis’ River party. The reaction of the parties the day after the elections is also rather interesting. The messages and signals they sent were endless, just like the subsequent meetings and behind-the-scene deliberations.
The government camp stated that “the message was received” and announced a wave of changes within the government and state, while hinting that the bailout is over and that from now on the financial policies will change. This could not be farther from the truth, since everybody knows that the country still has obligations, that the cuts in supplementary pensions are still pending and a slew of other facts which prove that the financial policy has been determined to a great extent and will not change dramatically unless there is growth or the debt becomes sustainable. We should not ignore the fact that, without a doubt, Mr. Tsipras also upped the ante. He considers the end of the bailout to be a sine qua non. The truth is of course that a lot will depend on Europe’s apparent shift, which may wish to change the financial circumstances in the Old Continent now that the threat of the Eurosceptics becomes greater.
So under pressure from the still-enforceable financial limitations and expectations for a possible European shift, the parties will attempt to respond to the recent election results to support their positions.
SYRIZA is seeking new allies
From the next day more or less Mr. Tsipras revealed that he will seek out allies to further increase his influence and create the certainty of assuming power. That is why he argued to be included in the selection of candidates for the management of the Bank of Greece and the European Committee. At the general meeting of the Federation of Enterprises (SEV) his intentions were clear and his reception from the business world was impressive. There was no shortage of smiles and the atmosphere at the reception with the industrialist representatives was nothing like awkward meeting last year. Furthermore, Mr. Tsipras’ stance regarding Juncker, who almost defended him against Mrs. Merkel, was indicative. Overall, after the European elections, Mr. Tsipras appears increasingly pro Europe abroad. On the home front he was ready to claim DIMAR, but the party members that came from PASOK are squinting at him. The SYRIZA president is also counting on society shifting towards his beliefs. Like many others, he believes that Greek society has shifted ideologically and politically. According to his estimation, the liberalism that dominated Greek society for two decades has started to wane and the changes favor SYRIZA’s challenge. In other words, Mr. Tsipras will want to lead this great democratic faction and create the conditions for a great popular majority.
If that is his main intention though, a lot will depend on the moves of the other two injured political parties. In New Democracy Mr. Samaras is clearly under pressure. For the time being there are no doubts cast, but the calls for a shift to the right must be taken for granted. Many are calling Mr. Samaras to “claim the 16.5% that is to our right” ahead of the upcoming changes and transfers in the summer. Mr. Karatzaferis, who got 2.7% in the European elections, is their prime target. ANEL are also available for some “looting” after Mr. Kammenos’ failure. Even the groups of Mr. Polydoras, Mr. Zois and others are up for grabs. But up to there. The main bulk of angered conservative voters are trapped in Golden Dawn, whom they voted for again and again and it is not easy to abandon. A lot will have to happen to convince them to leave Michaloliakos’ circles. In this respect, the “deep right” that many in New Democracy are striving for will not guarantee the party’s electoral recovery. On the contrary, the possible adoption of extreme conservative beliefs may benefit the true far right and not New Democracy. On the other hand, opening up to the Center may not yield any results, when more authentic voices, such as Mr. Venizelos, as also claiming it.
The Center Left’s regrouping
It appears that the last one may turn out to be the most strategic player at present. After the elections he is claiming further ground from Mr. Samaras, putting forward the need for the government to become more efficient and social.
The PASOK president is pressing for changes in the state and government in order to increase his influence and to a second degree to claim the space left behind by DIMAR and Mr. Theodorakis’ The River, which is gradually losing the support of academics and intellectuals who supported his effort and will continue to wane so long as he does not find a way to politicize his movement.
One could say that Mr. Venizelos is gaining the time to regroup his faction and planning accordingly so that his is recognized as a guarantor of the government. He is systematically repelling the possibility of elections even for the President and is counting on European developments.
In any case, the political landscape appears hazy and for some it may even be dangerous. There is no shortage of people though who believe that the country has found its path and nobody can change that.
The transformation of the economy is considered a given, investments are taking place, the geopolitical advantage is clear and no political episodes are in the position to change the way things are working out. Greece is recognized as a country of the developed world, offering incredible opportunities and will only benefit from the powerful incoming wave of globalization. After all, that is why international investors are so interested and investing billions of dollars into an economy that until recently seemed to be dead and finished.
Antonis Karakousis
Originally published in the Sunday print edition
